‘The situation has changed significantly beyond ourexpectations — this is indeed a very challenging time’ –Le Thi Thuy Trang, Siam Canadian Group

By Neil Ramsden | March 27, 2026 08:50 GMT

Vietnam’s pangasius sector is being squeezed by the hike in various costs caused by the ongoing conflict in Iran, with farm-gate prices high and steady and export prices climbing.

“Due to the conflict in the Middle East, the situation has changed significantly beyond our expectations,” Le Thi Thuy Trang, Sales Manager for Siam Canadian Group’s Vietnam office, told Undercurrent.

“Freight, packaging, and fuel costs have all increased, putting considerable pressure on overall pricing. This is indeed a very challenging time.”

As reported, the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP) had warned exporters faced sharply rising transportation costs, longer shipping times and growing logistics uncertainty.

Earlier in March, Vietnamese seafood exporters said the most immediate impact was not weakening demand but higher logistics costs and transport risks. Some international shipping lines have begun

avoiding high-risk areas, diverting vessels around Africa instead of using traditional routes through the Middle East.

“Although packers and farmers are trying to keep raw material and fingerling prices stable compared to the past two weeks, the selling price has increased, mainly due to higher freight and packaging costs, “Trang continued, speaking on March 24.

“In addition, with the current hot weather in the Mekong Delta, farmers are reluctant to stock fish. As a result, we expect the shortage of raw materials to continue, possibly until July.”

A second source in the Vietnamese sector added that the hot weather makes nursery fish more susceptible to bacterial diseases affecting the liver and kidneys.

The prices for procuring 800-gram to 1.0-kilogram and 1.0-1.2kg fish spiked at the start of the year, while the largest sizes — 1.2kg+ — remained steadier.

The cost of the smaller fish had eased before embarking on a climb either side of the Lunar New Year holiday in mid-February, according to updates from a Ho Chi Minh City-based consultancy commissioned by UCN to gather and analyze data.

That climb halted in week nine, when the US and Israel attacked Iran.

Prices for 800g-1.0kg and 1.0-1.2kg pangasius — the preferred range for producing fillets sent to the EU and US, with the US preferring the larger end of that range — have been essentially stable at almost VND33,700 ($1.28)/kg as of week 11 (March 9-15).

 However, it’s been the turn of the largest fish, weighing 1.2kg+, to climb, from VND 32,000/kg to almost VND 33,400/kg as of week 11. These fish are preferred by the Chinese market.

As shown below, farm-gate prices remain at their most expensive level for the past five years.

For the first two months of the year, the export value reached $94m, a sharp increase of 86%, mainly due to increased purchases by Chinese importers to serve the Lunar New Year holiday.

Customs data supplied to Undercurrent shows that while volumes shipped to China in February were quite static, the average price across all pangasius products rose sharply:

The US ranks second on the list of import markets. In February, pangasius exports to the US reached $18 m, down 19% y-o-y.

For the first two months of the year, exports totaled $38m, a dip of 5%, partly reflecting the “slowing consumption trend and the cautious sentiment of importers regarding changes in tariff policies in the US market,” said VASEP.

Brazil ranked third, with exports there down 27% y-o-y to $10 m in February — but cumulative exports to this market for the first two months of the year still reached $29 m, an 8% increase.

The aforementioned consultancy expects customs data to have shown that pangasius exports rebounded across most markets (except the Middle East) in March, compared to February, “but may remain lower than in January due to strong fluctuations in oil prices, freight rates, and the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, which is forcing vessels to reroute and increasing transit times.”

“The outlook for the future still presents some challenges,” said VASEP. “In the EU market, there is a shortage of whitefish, but China and Brazil are increasing tilapia exports to the region, potentially making the mid-range product segment more competitive for Vietnamese pangasius.”

“Furthermore, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East continues to be complex, increasing the risk of disruptions to shipping routes and leading to higher logistics costs, which could affect import demand and delivery schedules for seafood in this region and other parts of the world in the coming period.” UCN’s pangasius fillet assessment for EU imports, shipped free onboard, 100% net weight, shows prices have lifted somewhat in March from an already high level, as exporters attempt to pass on some of the increased costs.

In February, VASEP had said that with farm-gate prices at VND 35,000/kg — up to VND 7,000/kg higher y-o-y — there were “significant profits [for] farmers after a long period of losses.”

“With average production costs of around VND 24,000-26,000/kg, pangasius farmers can achieve a profit of VND 8,000-10,000/kg,” it noted. “This is considered a ‘dream’ profit margin for many farming households, given the high prices of feed, fingerlings, and capital costs over the past several years.”

A short supply of fish, but relatively stable farming costs, had meant a brief period of profits; that may now be interrupted by the volatility that’s hitting so many sectors that ship across the world.

Fingerling prices spike, drop back

The prices farmers pay to restock their ponds with juvenile fish were high in 2025, and historically so since late summer as levels climbed.

Weeks three to six of 2026 saw levels come down and stabilize at a noticeably higher level y-o-y.

Prices climbed sharply after the Lunar New Year, before dropping 12.8% in week 11, presumably because of the above-mentioned unwillingness to stock again amid inclement weather.

It was only one month previously that VASEP had said the cold weather had led to higher mortality rates for fingerlings.

The high price of fingerlings has made many farmers hesitant to restock, fearing the risks when commercial fish prices reverse, it said.

Asian shrimp exporters face market uncertainty as shipping deadlines for US-bound cargo have passed, while Ecuadorian small sizes have dropped, according to Undercurrent News’ latest global farm-gate price round-up

By Louis Harkell | May 27, 2025 11:45 BST

Additional reporting by María Feijóo, Tom Seaman and Lewis Hu.

Global shrimp markets have entered a standstill as shippingdeadlines for US-bound exports from major Asian producers have now passed, leaving the industry waiting for US president Donald Trump’s decision on reciprocal tariffs set to take effect July 9,according to Undercurrent News’ latest global farm-gate price round-up.

The market uncertainty has contributed to mixed price movements across regions, with Ecuadorian small-sized shrimp experiencing significant drops while Chinese prices accelerate their seasonal decline due to increased greenhouse production.

The shipping window closure affects all major Asian suppliers differently. Indian and Indonesian exporters, who had been racing to secure final shipments before the July 9 deadline, now face market uncertainty as the temporary reduction of reciprocal tariffs from 26% to the global baseline of 10% is set to expire.

“Everything that is destined or supposed to beat the July 9 deadline is gone, so orders are slowing,” Jim Gulkin, group managing director for Siam Canadian, told Undercurrent.” The deadline has passed for everybody… Everything’s in limbo, and that’s the problem. There’s just this uncertainty, which is the enemy
of any nuts and bolts business.”

Undercurrent’s global shrimp index for benchmark 60-count vannamei stood at $3.65 per kilogram in week 22, remaining 8.2% higher than the same period last year despite ongoing tariff-induced market volatility.

The uncertainty extends beyond immediate shipping times, with Gulkin noting that shipping companies have become “very casual about being late by two to three weeks” since the COVID pandemic, creating additional risks for exporters trying to deliver before the tariff deadline.

Among major export origins, Ecuador continues to offer the most competitive pricing at$2.90/kg for 60/70-count, while Vietnam remains the most expensive at $4.43/kg for 60-count. China’s Guangdong province is at $5.21/kg, though its production is mostly directed to domestic live shrimp markets.

Small shrimp prices drop significantly

Ecuadorian shrimp prices diverged slightly in week 21, with smaller sizes seeing significant declines while medium and larger categories remained largely stable.

The most notable change came in the 80/100 count category, which dropped to $2.30/kg from $2.65/kg in week 20. The smallest size tracked, 100/120 count, was priced at$2.00/kg. Meanwhile, benchmark 20-30 count vannamei held steady at $4.35/kg, and most other medium sizes showed little to no movement.

Industry sources said the market is navigating between positive production trends and potential oversupply concerns.

“So far, 2025 has shown encouraging signs of price recovery. However, an oversupply in the global market could be pushing prices down now,” an Ecuadorian source told Undercurrent. “Prices continue mostly flat, I’d say, though. It’s still too early to draw any conclusions.”

The source noted while current conditions appear stable, market dynamics could shift quickly. “If there’s a surge in buying now, it definitely could mean a slowdown in coming weeks, but we’ll have to wait until the next harvest as well.”

Chinese farmed shrimp prices continued their sharp downward trajectory in week 21,with the most dramatic drops in Guangxi, where 60-count vannamei prices plummeted CNY 5 to CNY 35/kg, and Shandong, which fell CNY 6 to CNY 40/kg.

“Shrimp prices continue to fall across China in week 21, with large price drops in Guangxi, Fujian and Shandong. The price of 60 count is now generally lower than CNY40/kg, which is a dividing line that most farmers would feel pessimistic about,” a market source told Undercurrent.

Haid, China’s largest shrimp feed producer, said that the local farmed shrimp market has formed a “stampede,” and greenhouse harvesting is expected to peak on June 20.Industry insiders attribute the pressure to “the harvesting of greenhouses and the lack of holiday consumption as a driving force.”

The early and steep price declines reflect the growing impact of greenhouse cultivation, which allows producers to cultivate shrimp in colder temperatures and is smoothing out traditional seasonal patterns. Tongwei, China’s second-largest shrimp feed manufacturer, has warned that prices have entered a downward trend and are expected to fall further.

Indian prices hold steady

Indian shrimp prices remained stable in week 22 despite increasing production in Andhra Pradesh and ongoing concerns over the US shipment cutoff ahead of the July tariff deadline.

Vannamei shrimp prices in Andhra Pradesh held steady across all size categories, with60-count maintaining INR 300/kg ($3.50/kg) for the second consecutive week, according to Aqua connect data. Prices in Nellore showed similar stability, with 60-count also unchanged at INR 300.

“The ambiguity of tariffs after July 8 is a factor,” a source with a major Indian processor told Undercurrent. This comes as Indian and Southeast Asian seafood processors had been racing to ship products before the unofficial deadline.

Industry experts previously told Undercurrent that May 15-20 was the range for final shipments to arrive at US ports before July 9, depending on destination. Shipping from India typically takes 36-38 days to the US West Coast and 40-50 days to East Coast ports.

Vietnamese shrimp prices eased in week 21 following a period of sustained firmness, with 60-count vannamei dropping to VND 115,000 ($4.43)/kg from VND 119,000 the previous week.

The decline comes as production conditions have improved across the country. “White leg shrimp production has strengthened over the past two weeks, thanks to higher survival and faster growth rates. Early this week, farm-gate prices softened across all sizes,” a Ho Chi Minh-based consultancy told Undercurrent.

Trump’s global tariffs have an unequal impact on seafood, disadvantaging it against other proteins, such as chicken, pork and turkey  —  By Cliff White and Tom Seaman | April 10, 2025 17:11 BST

The United States is a net exporter of chicken and turkey, and its imports and exports of pork are about even. That’s bad math for the seafood industry in tariff-happy US president Donald Trump’s second term.

The US imports a huge percentage of the seafood it consumes. So, thanks to the generalized 10% tariff he hit nearly 200 countries with on April 2, seafood is about to become even more expensive in the US than its protein rivals, which already dwarf it on consumption rates, warn a group of seven global seafood executives interviewed recently by Undercurrent News.

Equally damaging, they also might exacerbate seafood’s reputation as less affordable compared to other proteins, they said.

Count the National Fisheries Institute (NFI), the US’ largest seafood-related trade group, as among those with deep concerns.

“Seafood already faces all sorts of barriers to consumption on the preparation and access sides of the equation,” NFI chief strategy officer Gavin Gibbons told Undercurrent

Even in spite of the 90-day delay he ordered Wednesday (April 9) on higher, country-specific tariffs, the 10% tariffs remain in place for all except for Canada, Mexico and a group of other countries that now send the US little seafood, including Russia. 

Undercurrent did the math.

The US imported 3.2 million metric tons of seafood worth $25.8 billion in 2024, while exporting 1.2m metric tons worth $5.0bn — amore than 5-1 ratio. After subtracting the $7.6bn in combined annual import values generated by Canada and Mexico, and after adding the combined 125% tariffs applied to Chinese products, that means the US is potentially looking at more than $3.7bn in combined seafood-related tariffs.

And that doesn’t include the 25% tariff applied to most Chinese seafood products during the first Trump term.

How exactly the tariffs will impact protein prices in the US, and subsequently US consumption, remains to be seen, primarily because the US’ primary trading partners for beef, chicken, pork and turkey are also Canada and Mexico, which Trump has threatened repeatedly with 25% tariffs on food and other items, but which currently still trade most goods tariff-free due to the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement.

Regardless, though it’s too soon to have concrete data confirming a drop in US seafood consumption, consumers are reacting negatively to the budding trade war, said Anne-Marie Roerink, the founder and president of 210 Analytics, a Florida-based market research firm.

“From a consumer point of view, we’re definitely seeing some unease over the tariffs and their potential impact on prices and availability of goods,” she said.

Andy Harig, vice president of tax, trade, sustainability and policy development at FMI-The Food Industry Association, agreed seafood will likely get more expensive due to Trump’s tariffs.

“About 70-80% of the US seafood food supply is imported, and that is not a number that the US domestic industry can plug,” Harig told Today. “So you’re going to see that the cost of the seafood department go up.”

Glenn Sakata, a seafood wholesaler at Marine International Products, in Hayward, California, said he’s already seeing seafood prices rise, making sushi-lovers’ favorite indulgence an even bigger splurge.

“The price of sushi will definitely be more expensive,” Sakata told the Associated Press. “Sadly, yes, there will be a big impact.”

Even before Trump’s ignition of a global trade war earlier this month with his reciprocal tariffs, seafood had been struggling to gain market share versus other proteins in the US food market.

Chicken was already nearly ubiquitous in US restaurants, and US chicken consumption grew last year by 6.7% year-over-year, while seafood consumption declined 1.9% over the same period, Undercurrent reported in January.

Beef sales in US restaurants increased 0.4% in 2024, and the total volume sold was more than triple seafood sales, according to Circana data. Only pork fared worse than seafood, dropping 3.2% with lower sales than seafood.

Len Steiner, founder and principal of the retail and foodservice consultancy Steiner Consulting Group, warned in his 2025 economic outlook webinar for the Meat Institute that a trade war will impact the pricing of all proteins, and could actually make chicken, pork, turkey and even beef — despite the fact that the US is a net importer — cheaper for US consumers compared to seafood.

“It could mean a decrease in demand for the products, and a subsequent reduction in prices,” he said, WATT Poultry reported.

Bloom: Consumers forced to choose

In contrast, very few seafood executives believe seafood prices will decrease as a result of the tariffs.

“If the tariffs go into effect as currently written and structured, there is no doubt that business will be impacted. We will be looking at prices where consumers will be forced to make different protein choices due to economic concerns. Domestic seafood production can nowhere satisfy demand for many species, so seafood consumption will naturally be negatively impacted,” Eric Bloom, president of Eastern Fish Company, told Undercurrent.

Bloom’s company, based in Teaneck, New Jersey, and owned by Japanese conglomerate Marubeni, had around $400 million in seafood sales in 2023, mostly shrimp and crab.

Jeff Stern, co-president of Central Seaway Company (CenSea), which was acquired by Indian e-commerce firm Captain Fresh last year, is also worried US seafood consumption might drop as a result of the tariffs.

“It is too early to fully assess what will happen as a result of this, but yes, it could affect consumption. Markets don’t like higher prices and uncertainty – seafood [will become]more expensive as compared to other proteins by the tariffs,” he said.

Mike Shimchick, the owner of Stellar Pacific Seafoods, which trades Alaskan and Canadian seafood, said US consumers will not keep buying seafood if prices go any higher.

“The margins in our industry are already tough, especially with the processors with labor and material costs elevated over the past three years. Consumers won’t pay for these tariff-influenced increases,” he told Undercurrent.

Jim Gulkin, the CEO and founder of Siam Canadian Group, said he’s worried about how US consumers will react to the tariffs.

 “Margins in the seafood business are far too low for anybody along the supply chain, whether processor, exporter, importer etc., to be able to absorb the price increases due to the tariffs on Asian exporters. It will take some time for the market to adjust to higher prices and consumers will not react well. Consumption in the US will likely drop,” he said.

Stephanie Pazzaglia, outreach and development manager at Elkridge, Maryland-based seafood wholesaler JJ McDonnell, isn’t sure how the tariffs will impact her firm’s business.

“The tariffs are a tough topic. [It’s] uncertain how the industry will adapt and react. At JJ, we are working to navigate how it will affect the products and species we are importing from the various countries,” she said.

Undercurrent heard from many others, too.

Jose Antonio Camposano, executive president of Ecuador’s National Chamber of Aquaculture (CNA), is concerned about US consumption changing as a result of the tariffs.

“Inflation affects consumer behavior. There is a chance that shrimp could be replaced by other proteins,” he told Undercurrent

Andreassen: Farmers will pay

Johan Andreassen, who built up Villa Organic farms in Norway and also co-founded land-based US project Atlantic Sapphire in Florida, was a solitary voice of calm regarding the impact tariffs will have on seafood prices and consumption in the US.

US tariffs on salmon from all supply sources other than Canada will increase costs to the consumer, but not as much as people might assume, he posted on LinkedIn.

“There’s a lot of noise in the market. It’s creating uncertainty, for sure. But I still believe it’s unlikely that what was announced [April2] will end up being the long-term reality. And even if it does stick, the actual impact on consumer prices is going to be less dramatic than many assume,” wrote Andreassen.

“A 10% tariff at the import level doesn’t mean prices go up 10% on a restaurant menu,” he said. “If a salmon dish sells for $25 and the raw salmon portion costs $3.50, a 10% increase on the fish only adds $0.35. Even if the restaurant adjusts to maintain its food cost ratio, the menu price only needs to go up by about 5%. In many cases, it won’t go up at all.

“Retail is the same,” he added. “A 10% increase at the wholesale level might translate into a 5-8% increase at the shelf, depending on how margins are managed. It’s a real impact, but it’s not a 1:1 shock.”

The end consumer is unlikely to be the one to take the hit here, he added.

“A lot of the cost may end up falling on the farmers – who, historically, have enjoyed high profit margins and are still likely to make money even with tariffs in place.”