The U.S.’s reciprocal tariffs on many shrimp-exporting countries are realigning global supply chains and forcing major Asian producers, including Vietnam, Indonesia, and India, to rethink their strategies.

India, the largest shrimp supplier to the U.S., faces the most severe impact from the newly implemented tariffs. The nation is currently subject to a 25 percent reciprocal tariff, which could jump to 50 percent on 27 August under a new executive order from U.S. President Donald Trump. When combined with existing anti-dumping (AD) and countervailing duties (CVD), the total tariff burden could reach as high as 58.26 percent.

Even though India has been able to secure deals with nations like the U.K. to cushion the blow, the spike in U.S. tariffs has still jolted India’s seafood industry, with Seafood Exporters Association of India President Pawan Kumar G describing it as a “doomsday” scenario for the seafood industry, The Economic Times reported.

Others in the industry, like Indian Aquaconnect Founder and CEO Rajamanohar Somasundaram, described the new tariffs on Indian seafood as a “watershed moment,” eroding price competitiveness, squeezing margins, slowing shipments, and putting a USD 2.5 billion (EUR 2.1 billion) market at risk. The CEO, however, told SeafoodSource the tariff shock should spur India’s shrimp industry to rethink its traditionally held export-first mindset and begin tapping the vast domestic market as a proactive strategy – not just a backup plan.

“I believe this is the moment to change not just as a fallback but as a deliberate market strategy to cushion the impact. Though these discussions have mostly stayed within industry circles, mounting pressure may soon push the idea into the mainstream,” Somasundaram said.

He also said he sees huge potential in urban consumers through modern retail, quick-commerce platforms, and value-added ready-to-eat products. He urged the government to mobilize large institutional buyers – from railways and airlines to the armed forces – to absorb surplus and improve the nation’s nutrition. At the same time, he called for rebalancing exports by elevating the E.U., East Asia, and the Middle East from “backup” to “priority” markets, reducing dependence on the U.S.

While India recalibrates, another top Asian shrimp supplier, Indonesia, is reportedly seizing the opportunity to boost exports to the U.S.

Siam Canadian Indonesia General Manager Cicilia Darmali told SeafoodSource that Indonesia’s shrimp exporters have seen a sharp rise in orders from U.S. buyers since Trump announced additional tariffs on India, with many now fully booked through October. With a 19 percent reciprocal tariff and a 3.9 percent anti-dumping duty from the U.S., Indonesian products are now more competitive than other suppliers.

If demand remains strong until the end of this year, prices should stay at a higher level, even as raw material supply is projected to increase between October and December, Darmali said.

The U.S. was the top destination for shrimp from Indonesia in the first half of 2025, as it imported 69,653 metric tons (MT) during the six-month period, which was up 12 percent year over year. With India now facing significantly higher tariffs, Indonesia’s prospects in the U.S. market have suddenly brightened, according to industry blog Shrimp Insights.

“However, much will depend on how the revised tariff structure reshapes buying patterns in the U.S. and whether Indonesia can sustain its momentum in value-added exports to both traditional and emerging markets,” Shrimp Insights said.

Vietnam, meanwhile, finds itself somewhere in the middle.

In addition to the 20 percent reciprocal tariff the U.S. recently levied against the country, many exporters from Vietnam were hit with a preliminary anti-dumping duty of 35.29 percent and a countervailing duty of 2.84 percent, bringing the total tariff load to 58.13 percent for some producers.

Nevertheless, Minh Phu CEO Le Van Quang told SeafoodSource opportunities remain, as Vietnam retains an edge in supplying value-added shrimp to the U.S. market, which not all competitors can match. He also said he was cautiously optimistic that rising prices in the U.S. will translate into higher margins for exporters, motivating them to increase shipments in the future.

“At present, the high U.S. reciprocal tariff means selling to the U.S. is still unprofitable, while sales to other markets yield higher margins. However, U.S. prices are expected to rise sharply in the future, with profits catching up to, and eventually surpassing, those in other markets,” Quang said.

Quang, however, voiced concern over the steep preliminary anti-dumping duty recently imposed on Vietnamese shrimp by the U.S. Department of Commerce (DOC). He said that the DOC’s final ruling scheduled in December 2025 should bring the rate down, noting that the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers has urged the Vietnamese government to step in. In the meantime, he said Minh Phu and other Vietnamese companies are ramping up domestic sales and expanding into alternative markets to offset the impact of U.S. tariffs.

Smaller Asian suppliers, including Thailand, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka, face reciprocal tariffs of between 19 percent and 20 percent but have avoided anti-dumping and countervailing duties, keeping their costs competitive. 

Elsewhere, several Latin American producers, such as Mexico, Honduras, Guatemala, and Peru, are paying only a 10 percent tariff and are ramping up shipments of headless shell-on shrimp, which is the lowest-taxed category in the U.S. market, according to Shrimp Insights.

Ecuador has come out of the current tariff situation much better than other major players, enjoying the lowest rate among major producers at just 15 percent. As a result, it is rapidly expanding its peeled and value-added output, according to Shrimp Insights.

Toan Dao published in Supply & Trade

Indonesia’s seafood industry is grappling with uncertainty following a new reciprocal tariff announced by U.S. President Donald Trump – a move likely to accelerate the country’s ongoing efforts to diversify its export markets and reduce reliance on the U.S.

On 16 July, Trump announced that the U.S. will impose a 19-percent tariff on Indonesian goods starting 1 August, a reduction from the 32-percent rate initially floated on 2 April. The announcement – made via Trump’s social media platform Truth Social – was later confirmed by Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto.

As part of the deal, the two countries agreed U.S. goods will enter Indonesia with zero tariff or non-tariff barriers. Indonesia also agreed to purchase USD 15 billion (EUR 12.9 billion) in U.S. energy products, USD 4.5 billion (EUR 3.9 billion) in agricultural goods, and 50 Boeing aircraft.

Previously, goods from Indonesia to the U.S., like those from many other countries, were subject to a 10-percent tariff during the three-month suspension set by Trump  on 9 April.

President Prabowo said the latest agreement will help take trade between the two  countries to a “new era of mutual benefit” in a post on his official Instagram account, according to the Jakarta Globe on 16 July.

Siam Canadian Indonesia General Manager Cicilia Darmali told SeafoodSource on 18 July that the 19-percent tariff announced by the U.S. is more manageable than the previously threatened 32-percent rate.

“As you know, [the] 32-percent tariff will kill our industries as we won’t be competitive in the market,” she said in an email.

Darmali said despite the news of the lower tariff, many Indonesian packers remain cautious. Most, she said, are waiting for the final tariff decisions on India and Ecuador – two of Indonesia’s main competitors in the U.S. market – before making further purchases of raw material.

“Currently our packers are still not aggressive in buying raw material, they are still in wait and see mode. We all are waiting for the final tariff for Ecuador and India especially,” she said. “I believe U.S. importers are also waiting for the final tariff from India before buying more.”

Others in the seafood industry also remain wary, as while the tariff is lower than initially expected, it is still high enough it could still pose problems.

Indonesian Fisheries Processing and Marketing Entrepreneurs Association (AP5I) Chairman Budhi Wibowo said that even a 19-percent duty could undermine Indonesia’s competitiveness, Jakarta Globe reported on 16 July.

“For us, it’s not about the drop from 32 percent to 19 percent, but the jump from 0 to 19 percent. Even with 10 percent, we’ve already struggled,” Wibowo said, warning that the new tariff could make Indonesian seafood less competitive in the U.S.market.

To mitigate the impact on the country’s seafood exports, AP5I has urged the government to simplify licensing, lower non-tax state revenue fees, and improve financing access. Wibowo said rising upstream costs and permit requirements were already putting pressure on margins even before the tariff announcement.

“With the 19-percent tariff, our working capital needs will rise by 19 percent since we have to pay the tariff as soon as containers arrive at U.S. ports,” he said, calling for increased credit ceilings and lower interest rates from banks.

Economist Eko Listiyanto of the Institute for Development of Economics and Finance also described the deal as “not ideal,” though likely the most favorable outcome achievable given Indonesia’s negotiating leverage, he told Jakarta Globe.  

Troy Turkin, CEO of U.S.-based importer Supreme Crab, told SeafoodSource that the new tariff on Indonesia would raise costs for crab shipments already on their way to the U.S. While better than the proposed 32 percent, the 19-percent rate still poses a
financial challenge, he said.

In May, Indonesia exported 21,288 metric tons (MT) of shrimp, surging 27 percent year-on-year. Of those exports the U.S. was the largest destination, at 14,458 MT, rising 25 percent year-on-year. The sharp rise in the month likely reflects a push to expedite shipments ahead of anticipated trade actions, including the ongoing U.S. anti-dumping review, Shrimp Insights said in a note on 15 July. The export volume through the first five months of 2025 also increased 15 percent to 89,224 MT.

Darmali of Siam Canadian Indonesia agreed that the strong performance in the first five months was largely driven by packers rushing to fulfill large pending orders as U.S. importers pushed for early shipments to avoid potential tariff hikes. However, the  domestic market in Indonesia is rather stable at the moment.

“Right now [the domestic] market is quiet. Raw material price is stable for the moment, except for big sizes: HOSO [head-on, shell-on] 20 and 30 that are on the increasing
trend,” Darmali said.

While the U.S. remains Indonesia’s largest seafood export market, ongoing tariff uncertainty had prompted the country to begin diversifying its export destinations even before the 19-percent tariff was announced.

Indonesia’s Minister of Marine Affairs and Fisheries Sakti Wahyu Trenggono said on 15 July that the country is looking to increase exports to Europe and China to mitigate the impacts caused by the U.S. tariff, Indonesian news agency Antara reported 15 July.

Indonesia’s Ministry of Marine Affairs and Fisheries (KKP) said that it has signed
bilateral equivalence agreements on fish quality systems with Vietnam, South Korea, and Canada, enabling it to expand seafood exports to these markets. Head of KKP’s Quality Assurance Agency Ishartini announced in a statement on 6 July that his ministry has approved 20 new seafood processing units eligible for exporting to Vietnam, along with eight to South Korea and six to Canada, Changemakr.asia  reported on 9 July.

Seafood production in Indonesia rose 2 percent year-on-year to 5.58 million MT in the first quarter, thanks to the growth in cultivated fish output, seaweed production, and capture fisheries. Fishery exports in the period increased by 2.3 percent year-on-year in volume, while the export value surged 6.5 percent year-on-year to USD 1.94 billion (EUR 1.66 billion), Voice of Indonesia reported on 2 July.

Indonesia exported seafood products worth USD 5.95 billion (EUR 5.1 billion) in 2024. Of that total, the U.S. was the largest destination worth, USD 1.9 billion (EUR
1.63 billion), China came second at USD 1.24 billion (EUR 1.1 billion), ASEAN
countries came third with USD 854.22 million (EUR 731.6 million) and Japan was
fifth with USD 598.74 million (EUR 512.8 million), the Indonesia Business Post  reported.