‘The situation has changed significantly beyond ourexpectations — this is indeed a very challenging time’ –Le Thi Thuy Trang, Siam Canadian Group

By Neil Ramsden | March 27, 2026 08:50 GMT

Vietnam’s pangasius sector is being squeezed by the hike in various costs caused by the ongoing conflict in Iran, with farm-gate prices high and steady and export prices climbing.

“Due to the conflict in the Middle East, the situation has changed significantly beyond our expectations,” Le Thi Thuy Trang, Sales Manager for Siam Canadian Group’s Vietnam office, told Undercurrent.

“Freight, packaging, and fuel costs have all increased, putting considerable pressure on overall pricing. This is indeed a very challenging time.”

As reported, the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP) had warned exporters faced sharply rising transportation costs, longer shipping times and growing logistics uncertainty.

Earlier in March, Vietnamese seafood exporters said the most immediate impact was not weakening demand but higher logistics costs and transport risks. Some international shipping lines have begun

avoiding high-risk areas, diverting vessels around Africa instead of using traditional routes through the Middle East.

“Although packers and farmers are trying to keep raw material and fingerling prices stable compared to the past two weeks, the selling price has increased, mainly due to higher freight and packaging costs, “Trang continued, speaking on March 24.

“In addition, with the current hot weather in the Mekong Delta, farmers are reluctant to stock fish. As a result, we expect the shortage of raw materials to continue, possibly until July.”

A second source in the Vietnamese sector added that the hot weather makes nursery fish more susceptible to bacterial diseases affecting the liver and kidneys.

The prices for procuring 800-gram to 1.0-kilogram and 1.0-1.2kg fish spiked at the start of the year, while the largest sizes — 1.2kg+ — remained steadier.

The cost of the smaller fish had eased before embarking on a climb either side of the Lunar New Year holiday in mid-February, according to updates from a Ho Chi Minh City-based consultancy commissioned by UCN to gather and analyze data.

That climb halted in week nine, when the US and Israel attacked Iran.

Prices for 800g-1.0kg and 1.0-1.2kg pangasius — the preferred range for producing fillets sent to the EU and US, with the US preferring the larger end of that range — have been essentially stable at almost VND33,700 ($1.28)/kg as of week 11 (March 9-15).

 However, it’s been the turn of the largest fish, weighing 1.2kg+, to climb, from VND 32,000/kg to almost VND 33,400/kg as of week 11. These fish are preferred by the Chinese market.

For the first two months of the year, the export value reached $94m, a sharp increase of 86%, mainly due to increased purchases by Chinese importers to serve the Lunar New Year holiday.

Customs data supplied to Undercurrent shows that while volumes shipped to China in February were quite static, the average price across all pangasius products rose sharply:

The US ranks second on the list of import markets. In February, pangasius exports to the US reached $18 m, down 19% y-o-y.

For the first two months of the year, exports totaled $38m, a dip of 5%, partly reflecting the “slowing consumption trend and the cautious sentiment of importers regarding changes in tariff policies in the US market,” said VASEP.

Brazil ranked third, with exports there down 27% y-o-y to $10 m in February — but cumulative exports to this market for the first two months of the year still reached $29 m, an 8% increase.

The aforementioned consultancy expects customs data to have shown that pangasius exports rebounded across most markets (except the Middle East) in March, compared to February, “but may remain lower than in January due to strong fluctuations in oil prices, freight rates, and the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, which is forcing vessels to reroute and increasing transit times.”

“The outlook for the future still presents some challenges,” said VASEP. “In the EU market, there is a shortage of whitefish, but China and Brazil are increasing tilapia exports to the region, potentially making the mid-range product segment more competitive for Vietnamese pangasius.”

“Furthermore, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East continues to be complex, increasing the risk of disruptions to shipping routes and leading to higher logistics costs, which could affect import demand and delivery schedules for seafood in this region and other parts of the world in the coming period.” UCN’s pangasius fillet assessment for EU imports, shipped free onboard, 100% net weight, shows prices have lifted somewhat in March from an already high level, as exporters attempt to pass on some of the increased costs.

In February, VASEP had said that with farm-gate prices at VND 35,000/kg — up to VND 7,000/kg higher y-o-y — there were “significant profits [for] farmers after a long period of losses.”

“With average production costs of around VND 24,000-26,000/kg, pangasius farmers can achieve a profit of VND 8,000-10,000/kg,” it noted. “This is considered a ‘dream’ profit margin for many farming households, given the high prices of feed, fingerlings, and capital costs over the past several years.”

A short supply of fish, but relatively stable farming costs, had meant a brief period of profits; that may now be interrupted by the volatility that’s hitting so many sectors that ship across the world.

Fingerling prices spike, drop back

The prices farmers pay to restock their ponds with juvenile fish were high in 2025, and historically so since late summer as levels climbed.

Weeks three to six of 2026 saw levels come down and stabilize at a noticeably higher level y-o-y.

Prices climbed sharply after the Lunar New Year, before dropping 12.8% in week 11, presumably because of the above-mentioned unwillingness to stock again amid inclement weather.

It was only one month previously that VASEP had said the cold weather had led to higher mortality rates for fingerlings.

The high price of fingerlings has made many farmers hesitant to restock, fearing the risks when commercial fish prices reverse, it said.

Asian shrimp exporters face market uncertainty as shipping deadlines for US-bound cargo have passed, while Ecuadorian small sizes have dropped, according to Undercurrent News’ latest global farm-gate price round-up

By Louis Harkell | May 27, 2025 11:45 BST

Additional reporting by María Feijóo, Tom Seaman and Lewis Hu.

Global shrimp markets have entered a standstill as shippingdeadlines for US-bound exports from major Asian producers have now passed, leaving the industry waiting for US president Donald Trump’s decision on reciprocal tariffs set to take effect July 9,according to Undercurrent News’ latest global farm-gate price round-up.

The market uncertainty has contributed to mixed price movements across regions, with Ecuadorian small-sized shrimp experiencing significant drops while Chinese prices accelerate their seasonal decline due to increased greenhouse production.

The shipping window closure affects all major Asian suppliers differently. Indian and Indonesian exporters, who had been racing to secure final shipments before the July 9 deadline, now face market uncertainty as the temporary reduction of reciprocal tariffs from 26% to the global baseline of 10% is set to expire.

“Everything that is destined or supposed to beat the July 9 deadline is gone, so orders are slowing,” Jim Gulkin, group managing director for Siam Canadian, told Undercurrent.” The deadline has passed for everybody… Everything’s in limbo, and that’s the problem. There’s just this uncertainty, which is the enemy
of any nuts and bolts business.”

Undercurrent’s global shrimp index for benchmark 60-count vannamei stood at $3.65 per kilogram in week 22, remaining 8.2% higher than the same period last year despite ongoing tariff-induced market volatility.

The uncertainty extends beyond immediate shipping times, with Gulkin noting that shipping companies have become “very casual about being late by two to three weeks” since the COVID pandemic, creating additional risks for exporters trying to deliver before the tariff deadline.

Among major export origins, Ecuador continues to offer the most competitive pricing at$2.90/kg for 60/70-count, while Vietnam remains the most expensive at $4.43/kg for 60-count. China’s Guangdong province is at $5.21/kg, though its production is mostly directed to domestic live shrimp markets.

Small shrimp prices drop significantly

Ecuadorian shrimp prices diverged slightly in week 21, with smaller sizes seeing significant declines while medium and larger categories remained largely stable.

The most notable change came in the 80/100 count category, which dropped to $2.30/kg from $2.65/kg in week 20. The smallest size tracked, 100/120 count, was priced at$2.00/kg. Meanwhile, benchmark 20-30 count vannamei held steady at $4.35/kg, and most other medium sizes showed little to no movement.

Industry sources said the market is navigating between positive production trends and potential oversupply concerns.

“So far, 2025 has shown encouraging signs of price recovery. However, an oversupply in the global market could be pushing prices down now,” an Ecuadorian source told Undercurrent. “Prices continue mostly flat, I’d say, though. It’s still too early to draw any conclusions.”

The source noted while current conditions appear stable, market dynamics could shift quickly. “If there’s a surge in buying now, it definitely could mean a slowdown in coming weeks, but we’ll have to wait until the next harvest as well.”

Chinese farmed shrimp prices continued their sharp downward trajectory in week 21,with the most dramatic drops in Guangxi, where 60-count vannamei prices plummeted CNY 5 to CNY 35/kg, and Shandong, which fell CNY 6 to CNY 40/kg.

“Shrimp prices continue to fall across China in week 21, with large price drops in Guangxi, Fujian and Shandong. The price of 60 count is now generally lower than CNY40/kg, which is a dividing line that most farmers would feel pessimistic about,” a market source told Undercurrent.

Haid, China’s largest shrimp feed producer, said that the local farmed shrimp market has formed a “stampede,” and greenhouse harvesting is expected to peak on June 20.Industry insiders attribute the pressure to “the harvesting of greenhouses and the lack of holiday consumption as a driving force.”

The early and steep price declines reflect the growing impact of greenhouse cultivation, which allows producers to cultivate shrimp in colder temperatures and is smoothing out traditional seasonal patterns. Tongwei, China’s second-largest shrimp feed manufacturer, has warned that prices have entered a downward trend and are expected to fall further.

Indian prices hold steady

Indian shrimp prices remained stable in week 22 despite increasing production in Andhra Pradesh and ongoing concerns over the US shipment cutoff ahead of the July tariff deadline.

Vannamei shrimp prices in Andhra Pradesh held steady across all size categories, with60-count maintaining INR 300/kg ($3.50/kg) for the second consecutive week, according to Aqua connect data. Prices in Nellore showed similar stability, with 60-count also unchanged at INR 300.

“The ambiguity of tariffs after July 8 is a factor,” a source with a major Indian processor told Undercurrent. This comes as Indian and Southeast Asian seafood processors had been racing to ship products before the unofficial deadline.

Industry experts previously told Undercurrent that May 15-20 was the range for final shipments to arrive at US ports before July 9, depending on destination. Shipping from India typically takes 36-38 days to the US West Coast and 40-50 days to East Coast ports.

Vietnamese shrimp prices eased in week 21 following a period of sustained firmness, with 60-count vannamei dropping to VND 115,000 ($4.43)/kg from VND 119,000 the previous week.

The decline comes as production conditions have improved across the country. “White leg shrimp production has strengthened over the past two weeks, thanks to higher survival and faster growth rates. Early this week, farm-gate prices softened across all sizes,” a Ho Chi Minh-based consultancy told Undercurrent.