Additional reporting by Dan Gibson, Neil Ramsden, Lewis Hu and Maria Feijoo.

Devastating floods across southern Thailand and Sumatra have disrupted shrimp production in both countries, with industry sources warning of supply losses as the sector counts the human and economic cost.

In Thailand, severe flooding across nine southern provinces has affected an estimated 10,000 farmers — roughly one-third of all shrimp farmers in the country. The Thai Shrimp Association estimates total damages exceeding $31 million, with industry sources forecasting a 10% loss of national production.

The humanitarian toll in Indonesia has been significant, with at least 631 people killed and nearly 500 still missing after flooding in Aceh, North Sumatra and West Sumatra, reports the BBC. While shrimp production in the affected provinces is relatively small, some farms have been wiped out entirely and others left isolated without feed deliveries or electricity.

Despite the supply disruptions, price movements were muted in both countries in week 49 (Dec. 1-7). Thai prices were mostly flat, with only 60-count vannamei posting a modest gain. Indonesian prices edged slightly higher across smaller size grades.

Vannamei shrimp farm-gate prices in Thailand were mostly flat in week 49 as the industry grapples with severe flooding across the country’s southern production regions.

The 60-count benchmark rose THB 2.5 ($0.07)/kg week-on-week, while 70-count and 80-count prices held steady, according to market data.

Heavy rainstorms over the past week have caused severe flooding across nine southern provinces, devastating shrimp farms in key production areas, according to Undercurrent sources.

Approximately 10,000 farmers — roughly one-third of all shrimp farmers in Thailand — have been affected, Will Wiangchai, export sales manager at Bangkok-based frozen seafood exporter Siam Canadian, told Undercurrent.

“We estimate that approximately 10% of total production will be lost,” Wiangchai said. Production forecasts have been adjusted to 14,000-18,000 metric tons for December and 12,000-16,000t for January.

The worst damage occurred in Songkhla, Phatthalung and Pattani provinces, while farms in Nakhon Si Thammarat, Trang and Satun have also been hit by high water levels exceeding one meter.

Thai Shrimp Association president Ekapoj Yodpinit said production losses alone are valued at around $15.5 million, but total damages exceed THB 1 billion ($31m) when accounting for destroyed equipment, washed-away feed and juvenile shrimp, and damaged ponds, reported Khaosod English.

The southern region normally produces about 11% of Thailand’s annual output.

The association is urging the government to launch emergency relief, including new equipment, zero-interest loans and support for farms transitioning to low-carbon production.

Thailand’s shrimp output for 2025 is forecast at 270,000t, similar to last year. Exports from January to September are slightly down compared with the same period last year, according to Undercurrent data.

Indo floods hit Sumatra firm

Vannamei shrimp farm-gate prices in Indonesia firmed slightly in week 49, with smaller size grades posting modest gains even as the industry reels from catastrophic flooding in Sumatra.

The 80-count grade rose IDR 1,000 ($0.06)/kg week-on-week, while 90-count and 100-count each gained IDR 1,000, according to market data from Jala. Larger sizes from 30-count to 70-count held steady.

The price stability marks a shift from week 48, which saw sharp declines in several grades.

The sustained weakness suggests a significant market correction after prices climbed through much of the autumn.

According to an Ecuadorian shrimp farmer, Chinese importers have been delaying purchases for the Lunar New Year period, when shrimp consumption typically increases.

“The holdup is due to expectations that prices could fall further, but buyers risk running out of supplies,” the farmer told Undercurrent.

The European market began the week quietly, “with no fresh buying interest emerging and importers continuing to rely on the large volumes secured earlier in the year,” a second farmer said.

Meanwhile, wholesale prices for imported vannamei shrimp in the US continued to be pressured by “notably weak” demand, the second source added.

“Sales for the Chinese New Year have ended, same for the European Christmas campaign,” a source close to Ecuadorian producers said last week. “This occurs every year.”

The source pointed to rising production as a key factor behind the softening. “I believe there is a lot of shrimp coming out this November and December.”

In October, Ecuador shipped 116,109 metric tons of shrimp, up 35% from October of last year and its highest level since June.

Indian shrimp prices rise for third straight week

Vannamei shrimp farm-gate prices in India’s Andhra Pradesh extended their rally in week 49, with gains across all size grades as the harvest season draws to a close.

The 30-count benchmark jumped INR 15 ($0.18)/kg week-on-week — the sharpest increase among all grades. Sizes from 40-count through 90-count each rose INR 10, while 100-count edged up INR 5, according to data from Aquaconnect.

Vietnamese supply tight

Vannamei shrimp farm-gate prices in Vietnam continued to rise in week 49, with limited raw material availability keeping upward pressure on the market.

“Farm-gate prices kept rising this week due to the limited supply of raw shrimp, especially sizes 80 counts/kg and larger,” a Ho Chi Minh-based consultancy told Undercurrent.