New tariffs on Chinese goods introduced by the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump are causing havoc for Chinese seafood exporters, according to Landy Chow, the marketing manager of seafood import/export firm Siam Canadian.

Chow, who is based in China, told SeafoodSource that the impact of the new tariffs could be devastating for processors of breaded shrimp products exported from China to the U.S. – a seafood category in which China dominated prior to the imposition of 25 percent tariffs during the first Trump administration. 

Those 2018 tariffs cut output from Chinese factories producing these goods by more than half, Chow estimated.

“With a 20 percent additional tariff, things will be even more serious,” he said.

The new tariffs may also force the Chinese tilapia industry – which is already facing other issues domestically such as recovering from a 2024 typhoon and new emissions regulations – to shift strategies, according to Chow.

“Even with the 25 percent duty imposed in 2018, the business survived,” he said. “However, with 20 percent more, the total duty comes to 45 percent. That is simply too high.”

Chow said U.S. importers of tilapia may begin shifting their sourcing to Vietnam, Indonesia, or Thailand, forcing China to adapt in response.

“The problem is that these countries still do not produce significant amounts of tilapia at this moment,” he said. “If the 45 percent tariff stays in place for more than five years, I think it will help Southeast Asia countries to further develop tilapia farming; eventually, they might be able to compete against China.”  

Because Southeast Asia is not producing enough tilapia at the moment to meet Chinese production, U.S. importers might import more Southeast Asian pangasius than tilapia to fill the gap, Chow said. 

For Chinese producers still looking to ship products to the U.S. despite the obstacles, Chow said they need to get creative, and each strategy will be unique to the needs of the individual company carrying it out.

“I spoke to three Chinese tilapia packers. One packer said they are willing to shoulder one-third of the increased duty of 20 percent in order to help their customers. Another packer normally offers delivered duty paid [DDP] services but has now stopped offering DDP terms as nobody knows for sure what the final duty is. The third packer said they are going to meet with their U.S. customers at Seafood Expo North America and then determine how to quote the price,” he said. “As to who pays this 20 percent, I would believe that the best-case scenario is that the U.S. importer and Chinese exporter share it 50-50. Worst of all, the final duty is still not predictable. If the U.S. decides to slap another 10 percent in April, that will deal a big blow to all seafood-exporting factories that focus on the U.S. market.”

The tariff war is likely to affect Chinese exports, which saw gains in 2024.

China’s seafood exports reached a total of USD 19.5 billion (EUR 18.1 billion) in 2024, according to customs data, which was up 0.5 percent year over year. By volume, exports saw a bigger increase of 12.4 percent, reaching just over 4 million metric tons of seafood products shipped abroad.

As for the 15 percent retaliatory tariff China has placed on U.S. goods, Chow said Chinese importers are likely to see a surge in costs if the products they are importing are destined for consumption in China.

“In the case that the seafood is imported as raw material to process in China for export to other countries, however, the 15 percent tariff is not applied,” he said. “Most of the seafood China imports from the U.S. is for processing and then export.”