Frozen seafood processors

China tilapia raw material price is now RMB 8.20/KG. We estimate tilapia farming cost is currently around RMB 8.0/KG. Market price is very close to the production cost now therefore incentive for farmers to produce is low according to seafood suppliers and exporters. However, due to the US/China trade war, tilapia prices are not necessarily predictable. If the US reduces the China duty from 30% to about 15-20%, then likely tilapia raw material prices could move up to RMB 8.40/KG. If the US further increases the duty from the current 30% to 40% which will directly affect frozen seafood processors, tilapia raw material price might drop to RMB 7.80-8.00/KG level. However, from now to December, we expect tilapia raw material prices should be in the range of RMB 8-8.20/KG assuming the trade war is not escalated. From Jan 2020, cold weather is affecting supply so raw material price should increase slightly.