Raw material Price, Volume, Majority Size available
Last week, the raw material price went up from August. However, this week the price came back to the same level as August. Surprisingly, the price hasn’t gone up as the shrimp season has almost finished and there shouldn’t be the small shrimp size that much. One reason should be the heavy raining in the past few months. Thailand has faced the heavy rain in some region and It has been raining on and off for this two months and also the new rainy storm is about to approach Thailand. The farmers are scared of the loss from the rain. Moreover, the white feces syndrome is still the big problem for the farmers. The farmers usually prevent the big loss by selling what they have. We don’t see the big volume of big size shrimp i.e. Head on 20-25 pcs/kg or head on 30-32 pcs/kg (for EZP 8/12, 13/15) or head on 37-38 pcs/kg (for CPTO 26/30), the majority size is medium like head on 50-70 pcs/kg (CPTO31/40 -41/50). Considering from last year trend, price will slightly move up and down until mid October and will go up from mid October until the end of the year. Currently, most of the packers and shrimp exporter start to offer the December shipment on ward.
Farming condition, farmers info
The farmers are complaining about the low shrimp prices and trying to petition the government. However, the farmers are expecting the higher price since the domestic demand is coming. The restaurants resume for dine in but limit the capacity to only 50-70%. Over the weekend, there is a long waiting queue for some restaurant. And lots of seafood restaurants are running huge promotion. If the demand of shrimp and seafood from domestic consumption increases, it will encourage the farmers to harvest more. However, normally, at the end of the year farmers usually reduce the density. Our sources told us that the raw material price of shrimp feed such as soybean, fish meal has increased but the shrimp feed supplier cannot increase the price. If the feed price increases, it will have a huge impact on the farmers, processer and exporter as Thai shrimp price is higher than other origin. All in all, there is a sign of shortage of shrimp by end of this year to early next year.
Packer still buy raw material as normal. However, the freight situation has affected them a lot. Some packer will not start production if they cannot confirm the vessel space because of limitation of their cold storage. Most of packers are still in a good condition even they cannot increase capacity but they are still able to produce as normal. They can manage the Covid measurement already. If there is no big cluster happened in the area of seafood producer, the factories will manage it thru the situation. The other problem is the packaging. The packaging supplier has extended the lead time and there is a sign of price increasing in the near future which will affect the whole seafood industry not only shrimp industry.
The real challenge is freight cost and vessel space. It’s difficult to get the space confirmation from shipping line. Shipping lines only offer main port like LA, NY, Norfolk, Chesapeake to the exporter and the price keeps going up. There is no significant sign of this crazy situation to stop or improve. Only expert’s opinion is price is going up and no one knows when will it ends. This situation is out of exporter or anyone control and this could damage not only seafood business but all export business. It is certainly that Covid, port congestion and high demand are the reason of this chaos but there might be someone try to manipulate the situation as well.